Signal
ROSENBLATT INITIATION— Expected week of March 16 · Price target methodology: $15–22   RESALE REG. STATEMENT— ~March 30 · 30 biz days post-close · Lock-up holder list revealed   LOCK-UP TRIGGER— $12.00 VWAP × 15 consecutive days · Clock has not started   FIRST 10-Q— Mid-May 2026 · Beat threshold: >$12M revenue · Watch gross margin + funded backlog   RUSSELL 2000— Earliest eligible: Sept 2026 · ~$50–60M passive demand on inclusion   ANALYST DAY— March 11 COMPLETED · MDA SHIELD $151B IDIQ selection confirmed · In-line outcome   ROSENBLATT INITIATION— Expected week of March 16 · Price target methodology: $15–22   RESALE REG. STATEMENT— ~March 30 · 30 biz days post-close · Lock-up holder list revealed   LOCK-UP TRIGGER— $12.00 VWAP × 15 consecutive days · Clock has not started   FIRST 10-Q— Mid-May 2026 · Beat threshold: >$12M revenue · Watch gross margin + funded backlog   RUSSELL 2000— Earliest eligible: Sept 2026 · ~$50–60M passive demand on inclusion   ANALYST DAY— March 11 COMPLETED · MDA SHIELD $151B IDIQ selection confirmed · In-line outcome   
Live Tracking

Catalyst Tracker

Every meaningful near-term event for INFQ with an honest assessment of timing, magnitude, and direction. Updated as new information emerges.

Last updated: March 15, 2026 · All dates are estimates unless sourced from SEC filings

Impact key:
High
Medium
Risk
Watch

High Impact

Week of March 16, 2026
Rosenblatt Initiation (~$15–22 PT)
Quiet period expired March 10. Garrigan (Rosenblatt's quantum specialist) has had 2 management meetings. Methodology: 36.6× EV/Sales on 2030 revenue estimates. Potential +10–20% move on headline.
High Impact · Bullish
Mid-May 2026
First 10-Q (Q1 2026)
First real financial data as a public company. Beat: >$12M revenue. In-line: $8–10M. Miss: <$6–7M. Watch funded backlog definition, gross margin trend, and MD&A language on Safran and MDA SHIELD conversion.
High Impact · Binary

Primary Risk

~August 12, 2026
Lock-Up Expiry — 152M Shares
~70% of shares outstanding enter the market. Historical SPAC data: median -25% to -80% decline in 6-month window. Churchill/Klein (10.7M shares at $0.003/share cost basis) will sell at first legal opportunity.
High Risk · Primary Overhang

Medium Impact

~March 30, 2026
Resale Registration Statement
30 business days from Feb 13 close. Reveals the exact lock-up holder list with share counts. Short sellers get the data they need to model supply. Potential negative catalyst — watch for elevated options activity in the days prior.
Medium Impact · Bearish Risk
Sept–Dec 2026 (Earliest)
Russell 2000 Inclusion
Commonly misreported as June 2026 — INFQ is ineligible at the June reconstitution due to the FTSE Russell de-SPAC lock-up exclusion (rank date April 30; lock-up expires August 12). Estimated passive demand: ~$50–60M (~10% of float).
Medium Impact · Bullish

Time-Sensitive Watch

Ongoing
Early Lock-Up Trigger Watch
VWAP ≥ $12.00 for 15 consecutive trading days releases lock-up early. Stock touched exactly $12.00 AH on March 2. Monitor VWAP daily — this is the single most time-sensitive variable in the near-term setup.
Watch Impact · Time-Sensitive
Methodology: Catalyst dates and estimates are derived from SEC filings (S-4, 8-Ks, Form 4s), FTSE Russell index methodology documents, historical SPAC lock-up data, and public option chain activity. All estimates carry uncertainty. Author holds a long position in INFQ. Nothing here is investment advice.